Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sat Sep 19?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 66° to 73°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 65° against the DTW observations, with 0.44 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 69° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 66° | 67° | 71° | — | 73° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 61° | 72° | — | 69° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 66° | 72° | 70° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 65° | 82° | 70° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 73° | 70° | — | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 76° | 68° | 74° | 72° | — | — | 68–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 69° | 64° | 87° | 75° | 72° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 67° | 71° | 76° | 79° | 88° | — | 67–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 68° | 72° | 77° | 83° | 95° | 73° | 74° | 68–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 65° | 63° | 64° | 70° | 72° | 71° | 74° | 63–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 64° | 71° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 68° | 64–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 65° | 63° | 70° | 69° | 64° | 67° | 64° | 63–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 66° | 65° | 72° | 68° | 64° | 65° | 64–72° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 65° | 67° | 65° | 64° | 64° | 67° | 64–67° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.