Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Sep 24?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 57° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 69° against the DTW observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 68° | — | — | 63° | — | — | 63–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 65° | 57° | 63° | — | 82° | — | — | 57–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 63° | 66° | — | 74° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 75° | 73° | 71° | — | 79° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 74° | 72° | 65° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 64° | 74° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 78° | 70° | 77° | 73° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 63° | 65° | 58° | 69° | 81° | — | — | 58–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 63° | 59° | 64° | 66° | 67° | — | — | 59–67° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 64° | 61° | 61° | 65° | 60° | 66° | 66° | 60–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 65° | 64° | 65° | 62° | 63° | 67° | 62–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 66° | 68° | 65° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 64° | 64–71° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 69° | 65° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 67° | 65–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 70° | 67° | 67° | 66–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 67° | 70° | 66° | 72° | 71° | 68° | 68° | 66–72° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.