The Spread

Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Sep 3?

Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations

9 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 23° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the DTW observations, with 20.1 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 5° hot.

9 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 5°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-25 29° 23° 31° — 23° — — 23–31°
8d · 2026-08-26 28° 28° 31° 24° 30° — — 24–31°
7d · 2026-08-27 27° 28° 25° 31° 38° — — 25–38°
6d · 2026-08-28 26° 27° 30° 29° 40° 34° — 26–40°
5d · 2026-08-29 27° 28° 32° 30° 32° 32° 34° 27–34°
4d · 2026-08-30 29° 28° 31° 33° 32° 32° 35° 28–35°
3d · 2026-08-31 29° 29° 30° 32° 38° 28° 33° 28–38°
2d · 2026-09-01 28° 29° 30° 32° 34° 29° 32° 28–34°
1d · 2026-09-02 28° 29° 30° 31° 32° 30° 29° 28–32°
0d · 2026-09-03 28° 29° 33° 31° 36° 30° 32° 28–36°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.