Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Sep 3?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
9 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 74° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the DTW observations, with 0.79 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 74° | 87° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 82° | 88° | 75° | 85° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 82° | 78° | 87° | 100° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 80° | 86° | 84° | 104° | 94° | — | 79–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 82° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 90° | 93° | 80–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 82° | 87° | 91° | 89° | 89° | 95° | 82–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 84° | 84° | 86° | 89° | 100° | 82° | 91° | 82–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 83° | 85° | 86° | 89° | 92° | 85° | 90° | 83–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 84° | 87° | 89° | 90° | 86° | 84° | 82–90° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 83° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 96° | 87° | 90° | 83–96° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.