Was the forecast right for Tampa on Wed Sep 2?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
8 days out, 5 models put Tampa's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 30° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the TPA observations, with 9.4 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 34° | 30° | 33° | 36° | — | — | 30–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 34° | 31° | 33° | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 32° | 34° | 31° | 32° | 35° | 35° | 33° | 31–35° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 32° | 33° | 31° | 33° | 35° | 33° | 35° | 31–35° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 30° | 32° | 31° | 32° | 36° | 33° | 33° | 30–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 31° | 32° | 31° | 32° | 32° | 32° | 32° | 31–32° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 32° | 32° | 30° | 30° | 34° | 32° | 31° | 30–34° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 32° | 33° | 31° | 33° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 31–34° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.