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Was the forecast right for Tampa on Mon Aug 31?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

6 days out, 7 models put Tampa's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 29° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the TPA observations — thunderstorms.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 3° warm.

6 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-08-25 32° 34° 32° 33° 36° 33° 29° 29–36°
5d · 2026-08-26 32° 34° 31° 33° 37° 34° 31° 31–37°
4d · 2026-08-27 32° 34° 31° 33° 36° 33° 34° 31–36°
3d · 2026-08-28 32° 33° 32° 33° 34° 34° 35° 32–35°
2d · 2026-08-29 32° 33° 31° 32° 36° 34° 33° 31–36°
1d · 2026-08-30 32° 32° 32° 32° 36° 34° 34° 32–36°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.