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Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Sep 19?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the TPA observations, with 33.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 1° warm.

13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-09-05 33° 32° — — 34° — — 32–34°
13d · 2026-09-06 32° 34° 30° — 33° — — 30–34°
12d · 2026-09-07 32° 32° 31° — 32° — — 31–32°
11d · 2026-09-08 32° 33° 30° — 34° — — 30–34°
10d · 2026-09-09 32° 32° 31° — 35° — — 31–35°
9d · 2026-09-10 31° 33° 31° — 35° — — 31–35°
8d · 2026-09-11 31° 33° 31° 33° 33° — — 31–33°
7d · 2026-09-12 31° 32° 31° 32° 28° — — 28–32°
6d · 2026-09-13 31° 33° 30° 31° 33° 32° — 30–33°
5d · 2026-09-14 31° 33° 31° 32° 34° 31° 31° 31–34°
4d · 2026-09-15 31° 33° 32° 30° 33° 33° 29° 29–33°
3d · 2026-09-16 31° 33° 30° 32° 32° 34° 33° 30–34°
2d · 2026-09-17 31° 32° 33° 33° 34° 32° 33° 31–34°
1d · 2026-09-18 31° 33° 31° 33° 34° 31° 30° 30–34°
0d · 2026-09-19 32° 33° 32° 31° 33° 33° 31° 31–33°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.