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Was the forecast right for Tampa on Tue Sep 1?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

7 days out, 5 models put Tampa's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 31° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the TPA observations, with 8.9 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 2° cool.

7 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-25 32° 34° 31° 33° 37° — — 31–37°
6d · 2026-08-26 32° 34° 32° 33° 37° 34° 34° 32–37°
5d · 2026-08-27 32° 34° 31° 33° 35° 34° 34° 31–35°
4d · 2026-08-28 32° 33° 31° 32° 35° 35° 32° 31–35°
3d · 2026-08-29 31° 32° 31° 34° 31° 34° 32° 31–34°
2d · 2026-08-30 32° 32° 31° 33° 35° 34° 30° 30–35°
1d · 2026-08-31 33° 33° 32° 32° 35° 33° 32° 32–35°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.