The Spread

Was the forecast right for Tampa on Wed Sep 16?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 28° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 33° against the TPA observations — thunderstorms.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 3° cold.

13 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-01 — 34° — — 36° — — 34–36°
14d · 2026-09-02 33° 32° — — 34° — — 32–34°
13d · 2026-09-03 28° 31° 30° — 34° — — 28–34°
12d · 2026-09-04 31° 33° 33° — 34° — — 31–34°
11d · 2026-09-05 32° 33° 31° — 34° — — 31–34°
10d · 2026-09-06 31° 33° 32° — 34° — — 31–34°
9d · 2026-09-07 33° 33° 32° — 34° — — 32–34°
8d · 2026-09-08 33° 33° 30° 30° 36° — — 30–36°
7d · 2026-09-09 31° 33° 30° 33° 34° — — 30–34°
6d · 2026-09-10 32° 34° 31° 30° 35° 31° — 30–35°
5d · 2026-09-11 32° 32° 29° 33° 32° 34° 29° 29–34°
4d · 2026-09-12 32° 33° 32° 32° 33° 33° 33° 32–33°
3d · 2026-09-13 32° 33° 32° 32° 33° 33° 29° 29–33°
2d · 2026-09-14 32° 33° 32° 31° 33° 33° 28° 28–33°
1d · 2026-09-15 32° 32° 31° 33° 34° 33° 32° 31–34°
0d · 2026-09-16 32° 31° 32° 31° 33° 31° 31° 31–33°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.