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Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sun Sep 20?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

13 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 30° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the TPA observations, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° warm.

13 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-05 — 32° — — 32° — — 32–32°
14d · 2026-09-06 32° 34° — — 31° — — 31–34°
13d · 2026-09-07 32° 32° 30° — 33° — — 30–33°
12d · 2026-09-08 32° 31° 30° — 32° — — 30–32°
11d · 2026-09-09 32° 33° 31° — 36° — — 31–36°
10d · 2026-09-10 30° 33° 31° — 29° — — 29–33°
9d · 2026-09-11 30° 32° 31° — 33° — — 30–33°
8d · 2026-09-12 30° 30° 30° 32° 26° — — 26–32°
7d · 2026-09-13 31° 31° 32° 31° 33° — — 31–33°
6d · 2026-09-14 31° 33° 31° 32° 33° 32° — 31–33°
5d · 2026-09-15 31° 32° 31° 31° 33° 32° 31° 31–33°
4d · 2026-09-16 30° 32° 30° 31° 33° 32° 32° 30–33°
3d · 2026-09-17 30° 32° 32° 30° 33° 32° 32° 30–33°
2d · 2026-09-18 30° 32° 30° 32° 32° 30° 30° 30–32°
1d · 2026-09-19 30° 32° 30° 31° 34° 33° 30° 30–34°
0d · 2026-09-20 30° 33° 30° 32° 33° 31° 30° 30–33°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.