Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Sep 5?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 28° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 31° | 28° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 28–32° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 32° | 28° | 29° | — | 32° | — | — | 28–32° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 31° | 35° | 36° | — | 23° | — | — | 23–36° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 30° | 34° | 33° | — | 30° | — | — | 30–34° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 34° | 34° | 36° | — | 37° | — | — | 34–37° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 33° | 37° | 36° | — | 42° | — | — | 33–42° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 30° | 32° | 32° | 35° | 40° | — | — | 30–40° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 31° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 38° | — | — | 31–38° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 33° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 40° | — | 33–40° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 35° | 34° | 37° | 33° | 38° | 34° | 34° | 33–38° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 35° | 36° | 38° | 36° | 38° | 34° | 36° | 34–38° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 34° | 35° | 38° | 36° | 39° | 36° | 36° | 34–39° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 34° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 39° | 35° | 36° | 34–39° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 36° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 39° | 36° | 36° | 36–39° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 34° | 36° | 37° | 36° | 38° | 36° | 36° | 34–38° |
| actual | 37° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.