Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Sep 5?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 82° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 99° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 88° | 83° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 89° | 82° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 95° | 96° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 87° | 93° | 92° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 94° | 93° | 97° | — | 98° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 98° | 97° | — | 108° | — | — | 92–108° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 89° | 90° | 96° | 103° | — | — | 86–103° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 94° | 93° | 94° | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 92° | 95° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 103° | — | 92–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 95° | 94° | 99° | 92° | 100° | 93° | 93° | 92–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 96° | 101° | 96° | 100° | 94° | 97° | 94–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 94° | 95° | 101° | 97° | 102° | 96° | 97° | 94–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 94° | 98° | 93° | 98° | 102° | 95° | 97° | 93–102° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 96° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 102° | 96° | 96° | 96–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 94° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 101° | 96° | 96° | 94–101° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.