The Spread

Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 1?

Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations

10 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 29° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 36° against the CLT observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

10 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-22 29° 31° 31° — 34° — — 29–34°
9d · 2026-08-23 33° 32° 33° — 34° — — 32–34°
8d · 2026-08-24 32° 35° 35° 32° 37° — — 32–37°
7d · 2026-08-25 32° 34° 34° 30° 35° — — 30–35°
6d · 2026-08-26 34° 34° 34° 33° 38° 35° — 33–38°
5d · 2026-08-27 34° 34° 35° 33° 39° 35° 33° 33–39°
4d · 2026-08-28 34° 34° 34° 34° 37° 36° 34° 34–37°
3d · 2026-08-29 35° 35° 36° 34° 37° 36° 33° 33–37°
2d · 2026-08-30 35° 35° 37° 34° 37° 36° 32° 32–37°
1d · 2026-08-31 35° 35° 37° 37° 37° 35° 33° 33–37°
0d · 2026-09-01 35° 36° 35° 37° 36° 34° 33° 33–37°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.