Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 1?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
11 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 31° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the CLT observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 32° | 34° | 31° | — | 39° | — | — | 31–39° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 34° | 33° | 31° | — | 33° | — | — | 31–34° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 33° | 36° | 34° | 31° | 33° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 33° | 34° | 36° | 31° | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 33° | 33° | 33° | 32° | 35° | — | — | 32–35° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 33° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 38° | 34° | 30° | 30–38° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 34° | 34° | 35° | 33° | 38° | 35° | 32° | 32–38° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 34° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 32° | 32–37° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 33° | 33–37° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 37° | 36° | 33° | 33–37° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 35° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 34° | 33° | 33–37° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.