The Spread

Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Mon Sep 14?

Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations

13 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 32° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the CLT observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 — 25° — — 29° — — 25–29°
14d · 2026-08-31 32° 33° — — 32° — — 32–33°
13d · 2026-09-01 34° 32° 38° — 36° — — 32–38°
12d · 2026-09-02 35° 34° 32° — 34° — — 32–35°
11d · 2026-09-03 30° 32° 24° — 39° — — 24–39°
10d · 2026-09-04 30° 23° 36° — 33° — — 23–36°
9d · 2026-09-05 30° 32° 34° — 34° — — 30–34°
8d · 2026-09-06 32° 30° 33° 31° 37° — — 30–37°
7d · 2026-09-07 33° 32° 32° 30° 34° — — 30–34°
6d · 2026-09-08 33° 29° 32° 25° 34° 33° — 25–34°
5d · 2026-09-09 32° 32° 32° 32° 36° 32° 33° 32–36°
4d · 2026-09-10 33° 33° 33° 31° 36° 32° 31° 31–36°
3d · 2026-09-11 34° 33° 32° 32° 36° 33° 32° 32–36°
2d · 2026-09-12 34° 33° 33° 32° 35° 32° 31° 31–35°
1d · 2026-09-13 34° 33° 34° 32° 35° 32° 31° 31–35°
0d · 2026-09-14 34° 34° 32° 33° 35° 33° 32° 32–35°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.