The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Jul 26?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 5 models put Orlando's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 30° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 34° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — rain.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 3° hot.

9 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-17 31° 30° 34° 36° 37° — — 30–37°
8d · 2026-07-18 33° 31° 33° 35° 38° — — 31–38°
7d · 2026-07-19 32° 30° 30° 32° 36° — — 30–36°
6d · 2026-07-20 34° 32° 32° 33° 32° 32° 35° 32–35°
5d · 2026-07-21 32° 34° 35° 35° 36° 30° 32° 30–36°
4d · 2026-07-22 32° 33° 30° 34° 37° 30° 36° 30–37°
3d · 2026-07-23 33° 31° 31° 36° 37° 34° 31° 31–37°
2d · 2026-07-24 32° 31° 30° 36° 37° 34° 35° 30–37°
1d · 2026-07-25 32° 33° 33° 36° 34° 34° 35° 32–36°
0d · 2026-07-26 32° 34° 32° 36° 36° 36° 35° 32–36°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.