The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Wed Sep 9?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 31° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the ORL observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 — 31° — — 37° — — 31–37°
14d · 2026-08-26 33° 32° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
13d · 2026-08-27 31° 34° 30° — 39° — — 30–39°
12d · 2026-08-28 30° 32° 31° — 32° — — 30–32°
11d · 2026-08-29 31° 33° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
10d · 2026-08-30 30° 33° 31° — 35° — — 30–35°
9d · 2026-08-31 32° 34° 31° 31° 30° — — 30–34°
8d · 2026-09-01 32° 32° 31° 33° 38° — — 31–38°
7d · 2026-09-02 32° 28° 31° 32° 32° — — 28–32°
6d · 2026-09-03 32° 33° 31° 33° 35° 32° 31° 31–35°
5d · 2026-09-04 32° 33° 32° 31° 36° 33° 33° 31–36°
4d · 2026-09-05 32° 33° 32° 32° 36° 34° 33° 32–36°
3d · 2026-09-06 32° 33° 31° 32° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
2d · 2026-09-07 32° 33° 31° 33° 34° 33° 32° 31–34°
1d · 2026-09-08 32° 33° 32° 30° 35° 32° 29° 29–35°
0d · 2026-09-09 33° 32° 32° 32° 34° 32° 31° 31–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.