Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Aug 23?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

4 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 31° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 31° against the ORL observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° warm.

4 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 5°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-08-19	31°	33°	31°	33°	37°	32°	32°	31–37°
3d · 2026-08-20	31°	34°	32°	30°	36°	30°	36°	30–36°
2d · 2026-08-21	30°	34°	30°	32°	37°	31°	36°	30–37°
1d · 2026-08-22	31°	32°	30°	33°	36°	31°	34°	30–36°
actual								31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.