Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Aug 23?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
4 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 88° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 88° against the ORL observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-19 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 99° | 89° | 89° | 88–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-20 | 88° | 92° | 90° | 86° | 97° | 86° | 96° | 86–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-21 | 86° | 94° | 86° | 89° | 98° | 88° | 97° | 86–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-22 | 88° | 90° | 85° | 91° | 96° | 89° | 93° | 85–96° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.