The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Sep 4?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 33° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the ORL observations, with 12.2 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 1° hot.

14 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-20 — 32° — — 36° — — 32–36°
14d · 2026-08-21 33° 34° 33° — 39° — — 33–39°
13d · 2026-08-22 33° 34° 33° — 38° — — 33–38°
12d · 2026-08-23 32° 35° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
11d · 2026-08-24 32° 33° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
10d · 2026-08-25 33° 34° 28° — 37° — — 28–37°
9d · 2026-08-26 33° 34° 31° 31° 40° — — 31–40°
8d · 2026-08-27 33° 35° 32° 32° 38° — — 32–38°
7d · 2026-08-28 31° 34° 28° 32° 38° — — 28–38°
6d · 2026-08-29 32° 33° 31° 34° 35° 32° 29° 29–35°
5d · 2026-08-30 33° 34° 31° 34° 37° 34° 31° 31–37°
4d · 2026-08-31 32° 33° 31° 33° 31° 34° 32° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-01 33° 34° 32° 33° 35° 34° 34° 32–35°
2d · 2026-09-02 32° 32° 32° 34° 35° 35° 33° 32–35°
1d · 2026-09-03 32° 34° 32° 34° 37° 34° 34° 32–37°
0d · 2026-09-04 34° 33° 33° 34° 35° 33° 34° 33–35°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.