Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Sep 3?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 32° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 29° against the ORL observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-19 | — | 36° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 35–36° |
| 14d · 2026-08-20 | 32° | 34° | 33° | — | 36° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 33° | 35° | 32° | — | 38° | — | — | 32–38° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 32° | 35° | 32° | — | 37° | — | — | 32–37° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 32° | 35° | 31° | — | 37° | — | — | 31–37° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 32° | 34° | 27° | — | 37° | — | — | 27–37° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 35° | 32° | 35° | 36° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 34° | 32° | 34° | 38° | — | — | 32–38° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 31° | 34° | 29° | 33° | 34° | — | — | 29–34° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 30° | 32° | 27° | 34° | 36° | 31° | 29° | 27–36° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 31° | 33° | 31° | 32° | 36° | 33° | 30° | 30–36° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 32° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 34° | 33° | 28° | 28–34° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 31° | 33° | 31° | 32° | 32° | 34° | 32° | 31–34° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 31° | 31° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 33° | 31° | 31–33° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 30° | 31° | 29° | 30° | 33° | 33° | 30° | 29–33° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 28° | 32° | 27° | 29° | 35° | 31° | 28° | 27–35° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.