The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Sep 11?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 31° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the ORL observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-27 — 33° — — 40° — — 33–40°
14d · 2026-08-28 31° 33° 31° — 34° — — 31–34°
13d · 2026-08-29 31° 33° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
12d · 2026-08-30 31° 32° 32° — 36° — — 31–36°
11d · 2026-08-31 32° 33° 32° — 35° — — 32–35°
10d · 2026-09-01 33° 34° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
9d · 2026-09-02 33° 33° 32° 32° 35° — — 32–35°
8d · 2026-09-03 30° 34° 32° 34° 38° — — 30–38°
7d · 2026-09-04 31° 34° 31° 34° 37° — — 31–37°
6d · 2026-09-05 30° 34° 32° 33° 36° 33° 32° 30–36°
5d · 2026-09-06 32° 34° 31° 33° 36° 31° 35° 31–36°
4d · 2026-09-07 32° 34° 31° 33° 35° 33° 33° 31–35°
3d · 2026-09-08 32° 34° 29° 34° 36° 32° 32° 29–36°
2d · 2026-09-09 32° 34° 32° 34° 33° 32° 34° 32–34°
1d · 2026-09-10 32° 34° 32° 34° 33° 33° 32° 32–34°
0d · 2026-09-11 31° 34° 30° 34° 36° 33° 32° 30–36°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.