Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Aug 2?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 28° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 30° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 22.4 mm of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-18 | — | 31° | — | — | 39° | — | — | 31–39° |
| 14d · 2026-07-19 | 28° | 30° | 31° | — | 30° | — | — | 28–31° |
| 13d · 2026-07-20 | 30° | 31° | 25° | — | 37° | — | — | 25–37° |
| 12d · 2026-07-21 | 28° | 28° | 26° | — | 34° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 11d · 2026-07-22 | 31° | 30° | 26° | — | 36° | — | — | 26–36° |
| 10d · 2026-07-23 | 30° | 29° | 26° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–30° |
| 9d · 2026-07-24 | 30° | 29° | 30° | 33° | 37° | — | — | 29–37° |
| 8d · 2026-07-25 | 29° | 28° | 31° | 35° | 30° | — | — | 28–35° |
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 30° | 31° | 27° | 34° | 35° | — | — | 27–35° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 29° | 31° | 26° | 34° | 35° | 32° | 33° | 26–35° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 29° | 27° | 28° | 33° | 29° | 34° | 34° | 27–34° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 29° | 28° | 28° | 34° | 35° | 32° | 31° | 28–35° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 29° | 28° | 29° | 31° | 34° | 32° | 30° | 28–34° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 28° | 27° | 29° | 33° | 29° | 29° | 28° | 27–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 28° | 30° | 29° | 30° | 29° | 31° | 29° | 28–31° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 29° | 28° | 29° | 29° | 31° | 30° | 29° | 28–31° |
| actual | 30° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.