The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Jul 25?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

8 days out, 5 models put Orlando's Sat Jul 25 high anywhere from 33° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 34° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 3° hot.

8 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Jul 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-07-17 33° 33° 34° 36° 36° — — 33–36°
7d · 2026-07-18 33° 33° 33° 35° 37° — — 33–37°
6d · 2026-07-19 34° 34° 33° 33° 37° 37° 36° 33–37°
5d · 2026-07-20 33° 34° 33° 34° 38° 36° 36° 33–38°
4d · 2026-07-21 34° 34° 36° 33° 36° 35° 37° 33–37°
3d · 2026-07-22 33° 34° 33° 35° 38° 34° 35° 33–38°
2d · 2026-07-23 34° 35° 34° 36° 38° 34° 36° 34–38°
1d · 2026-07-24 33° 35° 32° 35° 36° 34° 36° 32–36°
0d · 2026-07-25 33° 35° 33° 36° 37° 35° 36° 33–37°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.