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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 24?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

5 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 36° to 46°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 42°. The day verified at 42° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.

5 days out the models said 36–46; it hit 42. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-08-19 40° 42° 39° 40° 46° 36° 39° 36–46°
4d · 2026-08-20 40° 41° 41° 40° 45° 41° 43° 40–45°
3d · 2026-08-21 39° 43° 44° 39° 42° 36° 43° 36–44°
2d · 2026-08-22 38° 41° 42° 41° 43° 35° 32° 32–43°
1d · 2026-08-23 39° 40° 42° 40° 43° 42° 43° 39–43°
actual 42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.