Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 24?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
5 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 97° to 115°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 107°. The day verified at 108° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-19 | 104° | 108° | 103° | 104° | 115° | 97° | 102° | 97–115° |
| 4d · 2026-08-20 | 104° | 107° | 106° | 105° | 113° | 106° | 110° | 104–113° |
| 3d · 2026-08-21 | 103° | 109° | 112° | 102° | 107° | 96° | 109° | 96–112° |
| 2d · 2026-08-22 | 100° | 106° | 108° | 105° | 110° | 94° | 89° | 89–110° |
| 1d · 2026-08-23 | 102° | 103° | 108° | 103° | 110° | 107° | 110° | 102–110° |
| actual | 108° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.