The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 3?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 29° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 37° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°.

14 days out the models said 29–40; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-19 — 34° — — 45° — — 34–45°
14d · 2026-07-20 35° 29° 40° — 35° — — 29–40°
13d · 2026-07-21 38° 33° 36° — 44° — — 33–44°
12d · 2026-07-22 39° 36° 33° — 48° — — 33–48°
11d · 2026-07-23 38° 28° 40° — 39° — — 28–40°
10d · 2026-07-24 34° 30° 36° — 42° — — 30–42°
9d · 2026-07-25 33° 34° 36° 36° 41° — — 33–41°
8d · 2026-07-26 32° 33° 36° 37° 38° — — 32–38°
7d · 2026-07-27 33° 33° 35° 35° 40° — — 33–40°
6d · 2026-07-28 34° 34° 36° 37° 39° 37° 36° 34–39°
5d · 2026-07-29 35° 34° 37° 34° 38° 37° 36° 34–38°
4d · 2026-07-30 35° 35° 38° 36° 40° 37° 37° 35–40°
3d · 2026-07-31 36° 35° 39° 37° 42° 37° 38° 35–42°
2d · 2026-08-01 37° 36° 38° 37° 41° 37° 38° 36–41°
1d · 2026-08-02 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–38°
0d · 2026-08-03 37° 37° 37° 36° 37° 37° 37° 36–37°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.