The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 5?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 33° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 1° hot.

14 days out the models said 33–42; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-21 — 32° — — 44° — — 32–44°
14d · 2026-08-22 36° 36° 33° — 42° — — 33–42°
13d · 2026-08-23 37° 26° 40° — 43° — — 26–43°
12d · 2026-08-24 36° 37° 25° — 38° — — 25–38°
11d · 2026-08-25 33° 38° 34° — 32° — — 32–38°
10d · 2026-08-26 35° 38° 38° — 44° — — 35–44°
9d · 2026-08-27 39° 38° 38° 35° 42° — — 35–42°
8d · 2026-08-28 37° 36° 38° 38° 42° — — 36–42°
7d · 2026-08-29 37° 34° 36° 36° 43° — — 34–43°
6d · 2026-08-30 37° 35° 37° 37° 41° 38° 37° 35–41°
5d · 2026-08-31 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° 39° 37° 36–40°
4d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37–39°
3d · 2026-09-02 36° 35° 37° 37° 38° 38° 37° 35–38°
2d · 2026-09-03 37° 37° 38° 36° 40° 38° 37° 36–40°
1d · 2026-09-04 38° 37° 38° 37° 40° 37° 37° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-05 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.