Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 2?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 32° to 47°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 1° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-18 | — | 36° | — | — | 44° | — | — | 36–44° |
| 14d · 2026-07-19 | 36° | 34° | 32° | — | 47° | — | — | 32–47° |
| 13d · 2026-07-20 | 38° | 36° | 35° | — | 41° | — | — | 35–41° |
| 12d · 2026-07-21 | 37° | 31° | 33° | — | 47° | — | — | 31–47° |
| 11d · 2026-07-22 | 38° | 36° | 32° | — | 45° | — | — | 32–45° |
| 10d · 2026-07-23 | 38° | 33° | 38° | — | 39° | — | — | 33–39° |
| 9d · 2026-07-24 | 33° | 30° | 38° | 32° | 39° | — | — | 30–39° |
| 8d · 2026-07-25 | 31° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 39° | — | — | 31–39° |
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 31° | 33° | 35° | 35° | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 32° | 32° | 33° | 32° | 37° | 33° | 36° | 32–37° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 33° | 33° | 34° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 36° | 33–37° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 34° | 33° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 33–35° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 34° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 37° | 35° | 35° | 34–37° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 34° | 34° | 36° | 34° | 38° | 34° | 34° | 34–38° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 34° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 35° | 34° | 35° | 34–35° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 34° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 35° | 34–35° |
| actual | 35° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.