Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Jul 23?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 30° to 43°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 35° | 34° | 41° | 38° | 43° | 38° | 30° | 30–43° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 35° | 36° | 42° | 39° | 43° | 39° | 37° | 35–43° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 35° | 35° | 40° | 34° | 44° | 38° | 37° | 34–44° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 36° | 34° | 39° | 36° | 39° | 36° | 37° | 34–39° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 36° | 37° | 35° | 36° | 35–37° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 34° | 34° | 36° | 35° | 36° | 35° | 36° | 34–36° |
| actual | 35° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.