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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Jul 27?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

10 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 35° to 47°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° warm.

10 days out the models said 35–47; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-07-17 39° 35° 42° — 47° — — 35–47°
9d · 2026-07-18 40° 39° 42° 41° 47° — — 39–47°
8d · 2026-07-19 39° 35° 42° 38° 45° — — 35–45°
7d · 2026-07-20 39° 38° 42° 40° 46° 42° — 38–46°
6d · 2026-07-21 40° 37° 41° 40° 42° 41° 40° 37–42°
5d · 2026-07-22 40° 38° 41° 39° 43° 40° 42° 38–43°
4d · 2026-07-23 40° 38° 41° 40° 42° 41° 41° 38–42°
3d · 2026-07-24 39° 37° 41° 38° 43° 38° 42° 37–43°
2d · 2026-07-25 39° 38° 40° 38° 41° 39° 41° 38–41°
1d · 2026-07-26 38° 38° 39° 39° 39° 39° 40° 38–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.