Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Jul 27?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
10 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 31° to 44°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 1° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-17 | 40° | 31° | 42° | — | 44° | — | — | 31–44° |
| 9d · 2026-07-18 | 40° | 39° | 42° | 41° | 47° | — | — | 39–47° |
| 8d · 2026-07-19 | 39° | 35° | 42° | 38° | 45° | — | — | 35–45° |
| 7d · 2026-07-20 | 39° | 38° | 42° | 40° | 45° | — | — | 38–45° |
| 6d · 2026-07-21 | 40° | 37° | 41° | 40° | 42° | 42° | 40° | 37–42° |
| 5d · 2026-07-22 | 40° | 38° | 41° | 39° | 42° | 40° | 42° | 38–42° |
| 4d · 2026-07-23 | 40° | 37° | 41° | 40° | 42° | 41° | 41° | 37–42° |
| 3d · 2026-07-24 | 39° | 36° | 41° | 38° | 43° | 40° | 42° | 36–43° |
| 2d · 2026-07-25 | 39° | 37° | 40° | 38° | 43° | 38° | 40° | 37–43° |
| 1d · 2026-07-26 | 38° | 38° | 40° | 38° | 39° | 39° | 41° | 38–41° |
| 0d · 2026-07-27 | 38° | 40° | 38° | 39° | 39° | 39° | 40° | 38–40° |
| actual | 39° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.