Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 22?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

3 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 22 high anywhere from 37° to 44°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 40°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — showers.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 6° warm.

3 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 37. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 6°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-19	38°	37°	41°	40°	44°	41°	38°	37–44°
2d · 2026-08-20	38°	40°	42°	39°	44°	42°	41°	38–44°
1d · 2026-08-21	37°	35°	40°	40°	43°	41°	42°	35–43°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.