The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Sep 16?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 30° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 30–42; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-01 — 33° — — 31° — — 31–33°
14d · 2026-09-02 30° 32° 36° — 42° — — 30–42°
13d · 2026-09-03 33° 18° 35° — 39° — — 18–39°
12d · 2026-09-04 37° 23° 37° — 37° — — 23–37°
11d · 2026-09-05 26° 30° 34° — 26° — — 26–34°
10d · 2026-09-06 35° 36° 34° — 37° — — 34–37°
9d · 2026-09-07 36° 34° 27° 38° 36° — — 27–38°
8d · 2026-09-08 36° 36° 37° 38° 37° — — 36–38°
7d · 2026-09-09 36° 31° 29° 36° 38° — — 29–38°
6d · 2026-09-10 36° 33° 37° 36° 39° 36° 37° 33–39°
5d · 2026-09-11 36° 37° 38° 38° 39° 36° 36° 36–39°
4d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 36° 37° 37° 36° 36° 36–37°
3d · 2026-09-13 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
2d · 2026-09-14 37° 36° 37° 37° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
1d · 2026-09-15 37° 37° 37° 37° 39° 37° 37° 37–39°
0d · 2026-09-16 37° 37° 36° 38° 38° 38° 38° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.