The Spread

Which weather model is most accurate in Oklahoma City?

Outlook Model accuracy

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Oklahoma City at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the OKC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 5.05°F at 3-day lead over this window.

The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.7°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 2.0° (-1.0°) 2.5° (-1.9°) 3.2° (-2.4°) 30
DWD ICON 2.0° (-0.2°) 3.3° (-0.7°) — 30
ECMWF IFS 2.1° (-0.6°) 2.6° (-0.1°) 2.5° (+0.4°) 30
UKMO (UK) 2.3° (+0.2°) 3.0° (-1.2°) — 30
GEM (Canada) 2.6° (-1.7°) 2.8° (-1.5°) 2.8° (-1.3°) 30
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.9° (-2.7°) 2.7° (-2.2°) 3.9° (-2.8°) 30
NOAA GFS 4.7° (+4.7°) 5.2° (+5.0°) 5.1° (+4.4°) 30
NBM (US blend) 3.2° (-2.1°) 3.3° (-2.8°) 4.1° (-3.5°) 30
Blended (bias-corrected) 1.7° (+0.0°) 1.8° (+0.0°) 2.2° (-0.0°) 30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Oklahoma City point is the Oklahoma City (Will Rogers) station (OKC), 7 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is OKC observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 95–108; it hit 101. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 3°F hot.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 91–114; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.4°F).
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 90–115; it hit 104. GFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cold.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 90–114; it hit 103. GFS led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 88–114; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 2°F cold.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 88–110; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 94–107; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 4°F hot.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 97–110; it hit 104. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 7°F cold.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 95–115; it hit 108. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 94–113; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); ICON ran 7°F cold.
  • Sat Aug 22 3 days out the models said 98–112; it hit 98. ICON led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 7°F hot.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 90–109; it hit 95. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 6°F hot.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 94–111; it hit 103. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cold.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 91–110; it hit 101. GEM led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 2°F hot.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 97–108; it hit 103. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F).
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 90–105; it hit 104. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 81–110; it hit 101. GEM led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 3°F hot.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 97–110; it hit 100. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 2°F hot.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 100. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 91–98; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 91–106; it hit 104. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
  • Fri Aug 7 14 days out the models said 84–109; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 7°F cold.
  • Thu Aug 6 14 days out the models said 86–101; it hit 99. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 3°F hot.
  • Wed Aug 5 14 days out the models said 95–101; it hit 101. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
  • Tue Aug 4 14 days out the models said 94–108; it hit 103. GFS led (off 0.0°F).
  • Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 84–104; it hit 99. ICON led (off 0.1°F).
  • Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 90–117; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 2°F cold.
  • Sat Aug 1 14 days out the models said 91–110; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F).
  • Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 91–116; it hit 107. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cold.
  • Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 90–110; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F).
  • Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 94–112; it hit 103. ICON led (off 0.4°F).
  • Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 93–115; it hit 103. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
  • Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 88–111; it hit 102. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 2°F hot.
  • Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 87–106; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 85–106; it hit 100. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
  • Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 88–109; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 3°F cold.
  • Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 85–109; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.0°F).
  • Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 88–113; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
  • Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 99–112; it hit 107. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
  • Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 95–105; it hit 99. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F hot.

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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.