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Which weather model is most accurate in Oklahoma City?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Oklahoma City at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the OKC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, NOAA GFS (2.72°F); at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 3.83°F at 1-day lead over this window.

Oklahoma City's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
UKMO (UK) 2.4° (-1.0°) 3.7° (-1.3°) — 30
GEM (Canada) 2.4° (-1.3°) 3.5° (-1.3°) 6.2° (-3.5°) 30
NOAA GFS 2.5° (-0.1°) 2.7° (-0.2°) 7.8° (-1.6°) 30
DWD ICON 3.0° (-1.9°) 3.7° (-2.7°) 6.2° (-3.2°) 30
ECMWF IFS 3.2° (-1.7°) 3.9° (-2.1°) 6.6° (-5.0°) 30
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 3.4° (-3.0°) 3.9° (-3.2°) 6.2° (-5.6°) 30
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 4.3° (-3.8°) 5.0° (-3.7°) 6.7° (-3.3°) 30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Oklahoma City point is the Will Rogers station (OKC), 7 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Will Rogers (OKC) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 64–72; it hit 59. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 68–89; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 7°F warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 64–88; it hit 77. AIGFS led (off 1.1°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 63–82; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 68–90; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 72–86; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 1.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 75–78; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 61–85; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 74–79; it hit 87. ICON led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 64–81; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 14 days out the models said 71–82; it hit 86. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 68–73; it hit 82. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 70–88; it hit 82. GFS led (off 1.9°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 65–82; it hit 69. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 75–86; it hit 71. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 75–90; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 80–98; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 4.0°F); ECMWF ran 8°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 84–94; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 80–100; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 61–91; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 77–94; it hit 94. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 11°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 74–103; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.9°F); ICON ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 84–96; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 68–97; it hit 93. GFS led (off 1.9°F); ECMWF ran 8°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 73–92; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 2.2°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 73–94; it hit 85. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 62–82; it hit 94. GEM led (off 2.1°F); ICON ran 9°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 82–94; it hit 99. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 79–87; it hit 99. ICON led (off 1.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 89–109; it hit 99. GEM led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 86–107; it hit 101. GFS led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 77–101; it hit 101. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 95–103; it hit 101. UKMO led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 93–108; it hit 101. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 90–104; it hit 106. GFS led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 18°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 89–108; it hit 98. GFS led (off 3.5°F); ICON ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 92–107; it hit 85. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 10°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 97–111; it hit 103. ICON led (off 1.3°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 76–102; it hit 103. AIFS led (off 1.4°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 68–99; it hit 102. ICON led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 81–109; it hit 102. ICON led (off 1.3°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 91–108; it hit 100. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 93–109; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 95. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 14 days out the models said 94–107; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 13 days out the models said 95–107; it hit 101. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 12 days out the models said 91–114; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 11 days out the models said 90–115; it hit 104. UKMO led (off 1.2°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 10 days out the models said 90–114; it hit 103. UKMO led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 9 days out the models said 88–114; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 8 days out the models said 88–110; it hit 95. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 7 days out the models said 94–107; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 6 days out the models said 97–110; it hit 104. GEM led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 24 5 days out the models said 97–115; it hit 108. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 23 4 days out the models said 94–113; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 2.0°F); ICON ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 22 3 days out the models said 99–112; it hit 98. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 11°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 88–109; it hit 95. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 98–111; it hit 103. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 86–110; it hit 101. GEM led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 87–108; it hit 103. GFS led (off 0.2°F).
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 99–105; it hit 104. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 2°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 81–110; it hit 101. GEM led (off 0.4°F); ICON ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 98–110; it hit 100. GEM led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.3°F).
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 91–95; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F).
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 92–106; it hit 104. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 14 days out the models said 84–109; it hit 96. AIFS led (off 3.2°F); ICON ran 7°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 14 days out the models said 84–101; it hit 99. GEM led (off 1.6°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 14 days out the models said 89–103; it hit 101. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 14 days out the models said 87–108; it hit 103. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 14 days out the models said 84–113; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 14 days out the models said 90–117; it hit 95. GFS led (off 0.1°F).
  • Sat Aug 1 14 days out the models said 91–110; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 14 days out the models said 94–112; it hit 107. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 13 days out the models said 90–116; it hit 102. GEM led (off 0.2°F).
  • Wed Jul 29 12 days out the models said 95–116; it hit 103. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Jul 28 11 days out the models said 92–119; it hit 103. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Jul 27 10 days out the models said 95–116; it hit 102. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Jul 26 9 days out the models said 100–109; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Sat Jul 25 8 days out the models said 97–113; it hit 100. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Jul 24 7 days out the models said 98–110; it hit 91. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 8°F warm.
  • Thu Jul 23 6 days out the models said 85–109; it hit 94. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Jul 22 5 days out the models said 88–111; it hit 96. ECMWF led (off 1.0°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Jul 21 4 days out the models said 98–111; it hit 107. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Jul 20 3 days out the models said 95–106; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.

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