Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Sep 22?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 73° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 89° against the OKC observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 2.2°. ECMWF ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 83° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 83–102° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 86° | 84° | 73° | — | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 72° | 95° | 78° | — | 93° | — | — | 72–95° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 75° | 84° | 74° | — | 81° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 71° | 76° | — | 91° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 98° | 86° | 73° | — | 89° | — | — | 73–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 82° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 75° | 90° | 74° | 77° | 84° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 89° | 90° | 86° | 79° | 95° | 91° | — | 79–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 82° | 78° | 82° | 92° | 92° | 82° | 94° | 78–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 78° | 74° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 84° | 74–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 78° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 84° | 81° | 85° | 86° | 90° | 86° | 85° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 82–87° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.