Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Oct 3?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 65° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 69° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 87° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 79° | 65° | — | 78° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 65° | 81° | 80° | — | 87° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 84° | 74° | 78° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 73° | 80° | — | 91° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 78° | 70° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 71° | 79° | 88° | 87° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 87° | 77° | 87° | 91° | — | — | 68–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 74° | 68° | 76° | 83° | 65° | — | 65–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 75° | 72° | 70° | 67° | 71° | 71° | 74° | 67–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 71° | 73° | 70° | 71° | 80° | 70° | 78° | 70–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 73° | 74° | 73° | 63° | 77° | 67° | 77° | 63–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 74° | 71° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 74° | 71–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 71° | 69° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 73° | 67–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 71° | 74° | 74° | 68° | 76° | 71° | 70° | 68–76° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.