Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 19?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 57° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. The day verified at 99° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 92° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 57° | 88° | — | 94° | — | — | 57–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 80° | 89° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 72° | 85° | 91° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 74° | 93° | — | 97° | — | — | 73–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 97° | 76° | 83° | — | 86° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 91° | 92° | 91° | — | 103° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 89° | 85° | 99° | 98° | 98° | — | — | 85–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 97° | 89° | 86° | 96° | 83° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 96° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 99° | 96–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 96° | 95° | 99° | 86° | 100° | 97° | 99° | 86–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 97° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 101° | 97° | 99° | 97–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 97° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 101° | 99° | 99° | 96–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 96° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 102° | 99° | 98° | 96–102° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 96° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 103° | 99° | 99° | 96–103° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 96° | 96° | 97° | 98° | 99° | 98° | 98° | 96–99° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.