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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 19?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 14° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 14–35; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-04 — 33° — — 28° — — 28–33°
14d · 2026-09-05 32° 14° 31° — 35° — — 14–35°
13d · 2026-09-06 27° 32° 22° — 24° — — 22–32°
12d · 2026-09-07 22° 29° 33° — 28° — — 22–33°
11d · 2026-09-08 23° 23° 34° — 36° — — 23–36°
10d · 2026-09-09 36° 25° 28° — 30° — — 25–36°
9d · 2026-09-10 33° 33° 33° — 39° — — 33–39°
8d · 2026-09-11 32° 29° 37° 37° 36° — — 29–37°
7d · 2026-09-12 36° 32° 30° 36° 28° — — 28–36°
6d · 2026-09-13 36° 36° 36° 36° 39° 36° 37° 36–39°
5d · 2026-09-14 36° 35° 37° 30° 38° 36° 37° 30–38°
4d · 2026-09-15 36° 36° 37° 37° 38° 36° 37° 36–38°
3d · 2026-09-16 36° 36° 36° 36° 38° 37° 37° 36–38°
2d · 2026-09-17 36° 36° 35° 35° 39° 37° 36° 35–39°
1d · 2026-09-18 35° 36° 36° 36° 39° 37° 37° 35–39°
0d · 2026-09-19 35° 35° 36° 36° 37° 36° 36° 35–37°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.