Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Sep 21?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 74° to 94°;by the call made on the day itself the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 79° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 79–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 86° | 85° | — | 94° | — | — | 74–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 70° | 69° | — | 90° | — | — | 69–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 76° | 78° | — | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 71° | 76° | 72° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 67° | 77° | — | 77° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 95° | 80° | 74° | 84° | 88° | — | — | 74–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 82° | 95° | 85° | 91° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 86° | 75° | 74° | 91° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 76° | 95° | 96° | 83° | 76–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 86° | 76° | 85° | 85° | 93° | 86° | 96° | 76–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 82° | 79° | 82° | 82° | 92° | 83° | 88° | 79–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 81° | 80° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 80–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 80–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 82° | 87° | 84° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 82–90° |
| 0d · 2026-09-21 | 79° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 82° | 88° | 79–88° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.