Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 13?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 93° to 108°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. The day verified at 101° against the OKC observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 90° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 97° | 93° | 93° | — | 108° | — | — | 93–108° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 100° | 76° | 94° | — | 105° | — | — | 76–105° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 98° | 92° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 94° | 104° | — | 100° | — | — | 94–104° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 99° | 81° | 102° | — | 101° | — | — | 81–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 88° | 95° | 104° | 96° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 98° | 91° | 92° | 95° | 103° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 99° | 99° | 90° | 102° | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 91° | 97° | 89° | 96° | 99° | 106° | 102° | 89–106° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 92° | 99° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 102° | 88–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 91° | 97° | 90° | 96° | 99° | 98° | 99° | 90–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 92° | 98° | 94° | 100° | 103° | 98° | 101° | 92–103° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 94° | 98° | 96° | 99° | 103° | 100° | 101° | 94–103° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 93° | 96° | 91° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 101° | 91–103° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 97° | 96° | 98° | 99° | 100° | 98° | 99° | 96–100° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.