The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 13?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 34° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-29 — 32° — — 40° — — 32–40°
14d · 2026-08-30 36° 34° 34° — 42° — — 34–42°
13d · 2026-08-31 38° 24° 34° — 40° — — 24–40°
12d · 2026-09-01 26° 37° 34° — 29° — — 26–37°
11d · 2026-09-02 36° 35° 40° — 38° — — 35–40°
10d · 2026-09-03 37° 27° 39° — 38° — — 27–39°
9d · 2026-09-04 35° 31° 35° 40° 36° — — 31–40°
8d · 2026-09-05 36° 33° 33° 35° 39° — — 33–39°
7d · 2026-09-06 37° 37° 32° 39° 40° — — 32–40°
6d · 2026-09-07 33° 36° 32° 35° 37° 41° 39° 32–41°
5d · 2026-09-08 31° 34° 37° 39° 38° 39° 39° 31–39°
4d · 2026-09-09 33° 36° 32° 36° 37° 36° 37° 32–37°
3d · 2026-09-10 33° 37° 35° 38° 39° 37° 39° 33–39°
2d · 2026-09-11 35° 36° 36° 37° 40° 38° 38° 35–40°
1d · 2026-09-12 34° 36° 33° 38° 40° 38° 38° 33–40°
0d · 2026-09-13 36° 36° 36° 37° 38° 36° 37° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.