Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 3?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 84° to 113°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 99° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-19 | — | 94° | — | — | 114° | — | — | 94–114° |
| 14d · 2026-07-20 | 97° | 84° | 104° | — | 113° | — | — | 84–113° |
| 13d · 2026-07-21 | 101° | 86° | 97° | — | 112° | — | — | 86–112° |
| 12d · 2026-07-22 | 101° | 86° | 92° | — | 100° | — | — | 86–101° |
| 11d · 2026-07-23 | 101° | 97° | 104° | — | 102° | — | — | 97–104° |
| 10d · 2026-07-24 | 93° | 94° | 98° | — | 107° | — | — | 93–107° |
| 9d · 2026-07-25 | 91° | 93° | 97° | 98° | 106° | — | — | 91–106° |
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 90° | 92° | 98° | 99° | 101° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 94° | 95° | 94° | 105° | 94° | — | 92–105° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 93° | 97° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 97° | 93–102° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 95° | 93° | 99° | 94° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 93–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 96° | 95° | 97° | 98° | 104° | 98° | 98° | 95–104° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 97° | 95° | 101° | 99° | 107° | 98° | 100° | 95–107° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 98° | 96° | 100° | 99° | 103° | 99° | 99° | 96–103° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 97° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 100° | 97–100° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.