Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Oct 5?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 68° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 82° against the OKC observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 85° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 71° | 72° | 73° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 89° | 77° | 84° | — | 85° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 73° | 58° | 77° | — | 63° | — | — | 58–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 77° | 66° | 73° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 72° | 60° | 75° | — | 61° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 76° | 64° | 67° | 71° | 74° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 73° | 72° | 74° | 83° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 71° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 78° | 79° | — | 71–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 75° | 75° | 75° | 75–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 81° | 75° | 80° | 75–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 82° | 75° | 77° | 75–82° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 80° | 76° | 76° | 75–80° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 79° | 77° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 78–82° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.