Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 12?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 82° to 104°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 106° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.1°. ECMWF ran 16° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 88° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 88–108° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 94° | 82° | 93° | — | 104° | — | — | 82–104° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 91° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 93° | 97° | 95° | — | 107° | — | — | 93–107° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 100° | 95° | 97° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 99° | 94° | 101° | — | 96° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 97° | 100° | 105° | 97° | 99° | — | — | 97–105° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 90° | 94° | 98° | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 96° | 88° | 102° | 95° | 105° | — | — | 88–105° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 95° | 96° | 86° | 93° | 108° | 94° | 98° | 86–108° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 95° | 105° | 102° | 84–105° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 95° | 89° | 92° | 100° | 101° | 98° | 98° | 89–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 96° | 82° | 91° | 100° | 98° | 99° | 82–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 86° | 96° | 85° | 102° | 104° | 96° | 104° | 85–104° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 98° | 89° | 101° | 105° | 95° | 102° | 88–105° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 94° | 95° | 90° | 102° | 104° | 104° | 99° | 90–104° |
| actual | 106° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.