Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Jul 26?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 100° to 109°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 102°. The day verified at 101° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-17 | 103° | 100° | 106° | 102° | 109° | — | — | 100–109° |
| 8d · 2026-07-18 | 106° | 104° | 108° | 106° | 111° | — | — | 104–111° |
| 7d · 2026-07-19 | 101° | 90° | 105° | 101° | 108° | — | — | 90–108° |
| 6d · 2026-07-20 | 102° | 100° | 105° | 100° | 115° | 106° | 104° | 100–115° |
| 5d · 2026-07-21 | 102° | 98° | 105° | 104° | 107° | 105° | 104° | 98–107° |
| 4d · 2026-07-22 | 102° | 99° | 105° | 103° | 108° | 103° | 105° | 99–108° |
| 3d · 2026-07-23 | 103° | 98° | 105° | 101° | 107° | 104° | 105° | 98–107° |
| 2d · 2026-07-24 | 102° | 97° | 104° | 100° | 104° | 98° | 104° | 97–104° |
| 1d · 2026-07-25 | 102° | 100° | 103° | 102° | 103° | 102° | 103° | 100–103° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.