The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Jul 26?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 30° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 38° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°.

9 days out the models said 30–41; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-17 40° 30° 41° 39° 36° — — 30–41°
8d · 2026-07-18 41° 40° 42° 41° 44° — — 40–44°
7d · 2026-07-19 38° 32° 41° 39° 42° — — 32–42°
6d · 2026-07-20 39° 38° 41° 38° 45° 41° 40° 38–45°
5d · 2026-07-21 39° 37° 41° 40° 42° 42° 40° 37–42°
4d · 2026-07-22 39° 37° 41° 40° 42° 40° 41° 37–42°
3d · 2026-07-23 39° 37° 41° 38° 42° 40° 41° 37–42°
2d · 2026-07-24 39° 36° 40° 38° 42° 39° 40° 36–42°
1d · 2026-07-25 39° 37° 39° 38° 39° 38° 40° 37–40°
0d · 2026-07-26 38° 38° 38° 39° 39° 39° 39° 38–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.