Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 5?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 91° to 108°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 100° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-21 | — | 90° | — | — | 111° | — | — | 90–111° |
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 97° | 97° | 91° | — | 108° | — | — | 91–108° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 99° | 79° | 104° | — | 109° | — | — | 79–109° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 98° | 78° | — | 100° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 92° | 101° | 92° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 94° | 100° | 100° | — | 111° | — | — | 94–111° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 103° | 100° | 101° | 95° | 107° | — | — | 95–107° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 99° | 96° | 101° | 101° | 107° | — | — | 96–107° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 93° | 97° | 97° | 109° | — | — | 93–109° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 96° | 99° | 98° | 106° | 100° | 98° | 96–106° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 99° | 96° | 100° | 99° | 105° | 101° | 99° | 96–105° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 99° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 99–102° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 97° | 96° | 99° | 98° | 101° | 100° | 99° | 96–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 99° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 104° | 100° | 98° | 97–104° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 100° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 104° | 99° | 99° | 99–104° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 99° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 99–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.