Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Oct 15?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 68° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 70° against the OKC observations, with 1.51 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 66° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 70° | 81° | 68° | — | 89° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 58° | 49° | 83° | — | 87° | — | — | 49–87° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 73° | 70° | 75° | — | 76° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 55° | 74° | — | 79° | — | — | 55–79° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 71° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 68° | 70° | 58° | 76° | 76° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 88° | 83° | 65° | 83° | — | — | 65–88° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 83° | 81° | 76° | 86° | 75° | — | 72–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 61° | 82° | 82° | 72° | 88° | 78° | 84° | 61–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 66° | 69° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 76° | 73° | 66–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 71° | 77° | 77° | 68° | 73° | 75° | 68–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | 74° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 75° | 75° | 76° | 74–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 71° | 77° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 71–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 71° | 72° | 77° | 72° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 71–77° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.