Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 18?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 78° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 99° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.3°. ECMWF ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 76° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 78° | 82° | — | 79° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 70° | 97° | — | 89° | — | — | 70–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 98° | 83° | — | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 73° | 83° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 96° | 97° | — | 102° | — | — | 80–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 95° | 76° | 80° | 98° | 83° | — | — | 76–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 96° | 85° | 97° | 99° | 100° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 98° | 84° | 98° | 99° | 100° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 94° | 97° | 97° | 82° | 99° | 97° | 82–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 96° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 96° | 95–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 97° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 96° | 95–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 98° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 95° | 95–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 97° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 101° | 97° | 96° | 95–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 97° | 96° | 96° | 97° | 102° | 97° | 95° | 95–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 97° | 97° | 96° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 96° | 96–100° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.