Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 18?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 26° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 25° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 31° | 26° | 28° | — | 26° | — | — | 26–31° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 32° | 21° | 36° | — | 32° | — | — | 21–36° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 33° | 37° | 28° | — | 38° | — | — | 28–38° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 23° | 28° | 31° | — | 31° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 26° | 35° | 36° | — | 39° | — | — | 26–39° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 35° | 24° | 27° | 37° | 28° | — | — | 24–37° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 36° | 30° | 36° | 37° | 38° | — | — | 30–38° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 37° | 29° | 36° | 37° | 38° | — | — | 29–38° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 36° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 28° | 37° | 36° | 28–37° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 36° | 35° | 36° | 35° | 38° | 37° | 35° | 35–38° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 36° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 35–37° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 36° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 35° | 35–37° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 36° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 38° | 36° | 36° | 35–38° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 36° | 36° | 35° | 36° | 39° | 36° | 35° | 35–39° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 36° | 36° | 36° | 36° | 38° | 36° | 36° | 36–38° |
| actual | 37° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.