Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 1?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 91° to 110°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 99° | — | — | 111° | — | — | 99–111° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 91° | 99° | 98° | — | 110° | — | — | 91–110° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 95° | 89° | 102° | — | 114° | — | — | 89–114° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 96° | 100° | 96° | — | 113° | — | — | 96–113° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 99° | 92° | 91° | — | 116° | — | — | 91–116° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 94° | 92° | 90° | — | 108° | — | — | 90–108° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 102° | 101° | 97° | 97° | 104° | — | — | 97–104° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 91° | 98° | 102° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 84–102° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 96° | 96° | 92° | 93° | 103° | 106° | — | 92–106° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 90° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 98° | 94° | 96° | 90–98° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 89° | 98° | 94° | 91° | 89° | 100° | 89–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 91° | 90° | 96° | 94° | 95° | 94° | 98° | 90–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 95° | 96° | 91–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 93° | 92° | 95° | 94° | 94° | 95° | 98° | 92–98° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 92° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 95° | 92–95° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.